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What is she on about, you may think, supermarkets are well stocked, any food item you may desire is available, we are facing an obesity crisis, not starvation. Well, let’s look at some recent polls and statistics.
Farmers are at a loss
You may remember thousands of farmers demonstrating at the end of last year against the introduction of a 20% inheritance tax in 2026. Many fear that in order to pay the tax they will have to sell land which might render their farm unviable.
But the tax is by no means their only worry.
Because of the drought in spring and summer yields were below average at a time when world market prices are low, too.
Livestock farmers are facing a feed crisis: due to the lack of rain in many parts of the country grasses just didn’t grow. On the BBC’s Farming Today programme a farmer reported that he harvested just 15% of the hay he normally expects to make. Many livestock farmers already feed animals what was supposed to be winter feed and/or are trying to sell cattle and sheep, including breeding stock, to get the remaining herd through until next spring.
Add to that the issues farmers have been dealing with for several years now – since 2020, to be precise – when Brexit took effect:
– Labour shortages: the number of seasonal worker visas is insufficient and the recruitment process is lengthy and expensive. Fruit and veg growers are facing massive problems, as are dairy farmers who need and can’t find permanent staff.
– In particular hill and upland farms face a financial cliff through the loss of ‘direct payments’, the money farmers received through the EU Common Agricultural Policy.
– Bureaucratic hurdles and increased costs for exports to what was and still is the UK’s most important market: the EU. Last year alone, British companies paid an additional £65 million for licenses and documentation such as phytosanitary certificates.
– Higher energy costs and climbing fertiliser prices.
– All of the above means there is no money to invest – in new machinery such as a direct seed drill, orchard replanting, a farm pond for water storage…. measures that could help secure a farm’s long term future and benefit the environment.
And the list of challenges is by no means complete. The result of the latest survey by the Country Land and Business Association, CLA, nevertheless may come as a shock: 80% of farmers “are worried their business will not survive the next decade” and “over 60% have considered selling their farm and leaving the industry”.
Why can’t we just import more food?
That’s what we are already doing – and I am not talking about coffee and bananas. The reason: According to a new report, UK Food Security – Outlook to 2050, the availability of agricultural land in the UK is shrinking rapidly because we need land for other uses, including housing, solar energy and environmental projects such as carbon sequestration, rewilding or tree planting. Here’s how the magazine Farmers Weekly summarised the findings: “If all government land use and climate policies are implemented in full, (…) almost one-quarter of UK farmland could disappear. Most of this loss would affect high-value arable land. (…) Without urgent policy change, UK food production could fall by more than 32%, (…) by 2050”. As a result, we would get even more dependent on imports. At present, we already only produce 66% of the food we need in the UK. For comparison: in the EU it is 88%.
When imports are no longer an option…
Remember the spring when it was impossible to buy cucumbers or lemons or pretty much any fresh fruit and vegetables? Those weeks, when supermarket shelves were just empty? The worst shortage occurred in 2023, but fresh produce being unavailable for a week or two has become the new normal. The reason? We import on average 25% of our fruit and vegetables from southern Spain, at certain times of the year the percentage may be higher, during the winter months 80% of lettuce are imported.
Southern Spain is the most important vegetable growing area in the whole of Europe, but irrigation has depleted the aquiver to a dangerous level. The impact of the climate crisis – droughts and unusual heat, unseasonal rain, or, as in October of last year, devastating floods – has time and again led to severe crop losses. When produce is scarce, it is easier for Spanish growers to sell what little they have to EU countries, rather than negotiate Brexit bureaucracy to get produce into the UK.
Of course, the climate crisis doesn’t just impact food production in Spain. The world over farmers deal with extreme weather events as well as new pests and diseases. Which means: for now we are able to get the food we need from somewhere in the world, but things may well change in the future. Depending increasingly on imports certainly isn’t a good idea.
Putting our money where our mouths are
Apart from being worried – what can we do? As a country, we can invest in climate resilient farming. In the long run, environmental measures such as setting aside land for wildflowers, pollinators, beneficial insects and birds may pay off financially, but initially there are costs involved for the farmer. That’s where society needs to step in. If we want farmers to grow food and deliver ecoservices such as flood prevention and increased biodiversity, we have to pay them for providing a public good. The Sustainable Farming Incentive, SFI, did just that. But in spring of this year, the government shut SFI down without warning, apparently there were too many applicants and no money left. DEFRA says the scheme will reopen next year, but neither date nor conditions are known. And for farmers who have to take planting decisions now the re-launch will come too late in any case.
We are in a cost of living crisis, food has to remain affordable, politicians insist. If farmers can’t expect to get more for their produce, they will try to make up by producing as much as they can at the lowest cost possible. That means growing cash crops on every available piece of land. As there is no financial return on those flower margins they will have to go. Chemical fertiliser and herbicides ‘to the rescue’ and farming from fence post to fence post it is. When the farm’s survival is at immediate stake, transition to regenerative or organic agriculture may not be choices a farmer can afford to make.
Not just in view of the worsening climate crisis, this is a recipe for disaster. So, can we please put trust in farmers, give them the means to produce food sustainably and make sure that they are able to feed us in years to come? Maybe we’ll have to write to our respective MPs what they think of the plan….
Marianne Landzettel is a journalist and author writing and blogging about food, farming and agricultural policies in the UK, the US, continental Europe and South Asia. She worked for the BBC World Service and German Public Radio for close to 30 years. Follow her on X at @M_Landzettel Image used with kind consent of @M.Kunz
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